A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
